Bond king Jeff Gundlach says the odds of a US recession before the 2020 election have grown
The odds that the US falls into a recession before the 2020 election have grown, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, who oversees $140 billion as the CEO of DoubleLine Capital.
He previously said the recession risk before the election is 75%. Now, it’s higher because the yield-curve inversion has righted itself, he said at an event in London, according to Bloomberg.
Gundlach also said he’s neutral on gold and doesn’t expect a US-China trade deal before the 2020 election.
on Markets Insider.
There’s a higher chance that the US falls into a recession before the 2020 election, Jeffery Gundlach, the chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital and so-called bond king, said on Thursday.
He made the remarks at an event in London, according to Bloomberg.
He said the odds of a recession before the 2020 election are 75%, repeating a prediction he made in August.
But the likelihood is now higher because of changes in the Treasury yield curve, said Gundlach, who oversees more than $140 billion. The yield-curve inversion — a long-watched indicator that has preceded every US recession since 1950— is not the most important signal, he said. Instead, it’s the inversion occurring and going away that is a red flag.
In August, the yield curve between 2- and 10-year Treasuries inverted and then righted itself later. That’s a sign that “we should be on recession watch before the 2020 election,” Gundlach said.
To be sure, Gundlach also said that while the US is getting closer to a recession, it is not there yet. In addition, the yield-curve’s signal has been wrong before — there have been a few cases where it inverted and no recession followed.
Still, when a recession does hit, Gundlach has said that he’s worried about debt in the …read more
Source:: Business Insider