The computer models that pick NFL games are on fire — here are the picks for Week 6

Tom Brady

Week 6 of the NFL season is here, and Cortana is back to make picks in a head-to-head showdown with Elo.

We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft’s digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight. In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team’s winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.

Cortana won the regular season matchup last year, going 162-78 (68%) overall, and 111-38 (75%) over the last ten weeks (we did not track Week 17 because of the wonky nature of the final week). Elo was not far behind, going 154-86 (64%) overall.

Cortana is off to a strong start in 2018, going 40-21-1 the last four weeks. Elo is not far behind at 36-25-1. Both models went 10-5 in Week 5 and 21-9 over the last two weeks.

Here are the picks for Week 6, with each model’s percent chance of winning in parentheses. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.

Thursday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles (-2) at New York Giants — EAGLES (Elo 71%; Cortana 57%)

Sunday afternoon games — early window

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3) — FALCONS (Elo 67%; Cortana 66%)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) — BENGALS (Elo 54%; Cortana 53%)
Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Cleveland Browns — CHARGERS (Elo 69%); BROWNS (Cortana 51%)
Chicago Bears (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins — DOLPHINS (Elo 54%); BEARS (Cortana 60%)
Seattle Seahawks (-3) vs. Oakland Raiders (in London) — SEAHAWKS (Elo 67%; Cortana 70%)
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-10) — VIKINGS (Elo 74%; Cortana 78%)
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-2.5) — JETS (Elo 67%; …read more

Source:: Business Insider


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